Tuesday, July 24, 2007

2006 VY Passing Chart

In my previous post, I gave you an updated description of what all those passing grades on my UFR mean. Now that you've seen that, the question is, so, how did VY do?

@ Eagles1.
v Giants8222073
v Colts2146170
@ Texans3214263
v Jaguars0105003
@ Bills2117042
v Patriots323.583.525

Now that we have this chart, what does it mean? The basic rule of thumb I start with for evaluating a game is how many good (DO) throws did a QB make versus bad (IN and, particularly, BR) ones during a game? By this standard, the only game VY had where we can unequivocally say he was good was the Giants game. The Philly game was clearly one of his worst, as he had nearly as many Inaccurate passes as Catchable ones, and the Bad Read total was sky high. In the Colts game, the most dangerous aspect of VY's game was his scrambling, and he was very successful at that. The Texans game was the same way, though he wasn't quite as inaccurate. The Jags game wasn't a good one, as nearly half of his passes came out with negative grades, and there were no particularly good passes. Subjectively, I feel like VY played better against Buffalo and worse against the Patriots than this chart suggests, but those may simply reflect the wide diversity in what constitutes a (CA) grade and how much help he got from his teammates (i.e., almost none in the Pats game).

Add them up, and what kind of totals do you get?

Dead On: 19.5 (8.55%)
Catchable: 110 (48.25%)
Inaccurate: 39.5 (17.32%)
Bad Read: 13 (5.70%)
Scramble: 28 (12.28%)
Pressure: 18 (7.89%)

What does this tell us about VY's development? Almost nothing, I'd say. Instead, I think this will be most valuable from a longitudinal point of view. These are numbers, particularly percentages, I plan to revisit in 6 to 8 months, after the 2007 season is over. If the (BR) and (IN) percentages are lower, and (DO) is higher, then progress will have occurred. If the reverse is true, then be worried. Be very, very worried.

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